What’s The Question?

Almost five months have gone by since I learned that I missed the 2019 Boston Marathon Cut-off by 1 second.  Enough time has passed for my  bruised feeling to heal.  Even though as I said before, try harder next time, a few questions need to be addressed.

And they are:

  1. What is the qualifying time for age 60?
  2. How much faster do I need to beat the qualifying time (#1) to make the cut-off?
  3. What pace do I need to run to meet the time required from #2?
  4. How should I train to achieve the fitness level for the pace in #3?

My goal remains the same – qualifying fast enough to run in the Boston Marathon.

Before the marathon training starts in two months, an overarching question is  how fast do I need to achieve this year to run the 2020 Boston Marathon? The answer to this and other associated questions will determine how I need to train.

Pardon the geek in me, but my approach and the answers are as follows:

  1.  3 hrs 50 min 00 sec (men 60 – 64)
  2. Here is the geeky part.  I took a look at the cut off times since 2012 when BAA started the rolling admission:  2019 (4:52), 2018 (3:23), 2017 (2:09), 2016 (2:28), 2015 (1:02), 2014 (1:38).  In 2013 overflow runners were deferred to 2014.  And in 2012 the cutoff was actually 5 minutes SLOWER than the qualifying times.  And I did a linear regression (or extrapolate) on the cutoffs and got 4 min 40 sec for 2020 which means I need to run a qualifying marathon under 3 hr 45 min 20 sec (assuming my math is correct).
  3. 8:36 is the pace using the McMillan calculator.
  4.  My training will pretty much mirror the last year’s maybe with a few tweaks.

There you have it.

Which questions do you need to answer to achieve your goals? 

This entry was posted in big data, Boston Marathon, Goals, marathon training and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to What’s The Question?

  1. OmniRunner says:

    I turn 55 this year and I’m looking forward to getting a few extra minutes to qualify. I think my qualifying time will be 3:40. I did run a 3:47 about 5 years ago and can run a 4 hour marathon when I train well.
    So it is possible to qualify I just need to dial things in and focus.
    Andy

    Like

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