Covid-19 Herd Immunity When?

With the Covid-19 cases on the rise, I was curious when will we achieve “herd immunity.” Are we really going to get there?  In short, the answer is YES.  But ‘when’ is the more difficult part to say because of the dynamic nature of the virus.

As explained in the video, there are two ways to get immunity: naturally or through vaccination. 

If a person is exposed to and survives an infection, the person’s body develops an immunity naturally.  The other method is through vaccination. According to the Johns Hopkins, 70% is the percentage of people to be immune for the Covid-19 to stop spreading. 

The 70% number is also known as the herd immunity threshold which varies depending on how contagious a disease is.  For example, it is estimated for measles the threshold is 94%. Within the US, a handful of states have reached the Covid-19 threshold.

But, to stop the pandemic, the entire world needs to be protected.  And as of now, less than a quarter of the world population is fully vaccinated (about one-third has at least one dose). Still a way to go. And there lies the difficulty with the when part of the question.

Because the longer it takes to reach the threshold the more chance for the disease to spread and mutate. Which can render the existing vaccines ineffective.  So the answer on the ‘when’ goes without saying, the sooner the better. 

Do you know if your community has reached herd immunity?

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