It has been three months since my last Ukraine update. This post will highlight some the developments and trends since.
Russia has control of majority of the Donbas region in the eastern Ukraine. Its focus is shifting to southern Ukraine, specifically the port cities of Kherson.
With the weapons supplied by the West (e.g., HIMARS & howitzers), the Ukraine force has now the missile range to not only retard the Russian’s advances but also putting them on the defense.
Attention is shifting to the southern port of Kherson, which was captured by Russian troops on 2 Mar, just days into the war. The city is strategic in its location west of the Dnipro river, which splits Ukraine in two, and its water supply to the Russian-occupied Crimea.
Ukraine would love to retake the Kherson just as much as the Russian will not give it up. It would be a key indicator of the war’s development.
Trouble is the war of attrition takes a toll on both sides. Even with the unlimited supplies of western weapons, the Ukraine needs experienced soldiers to wage a major counteroffensive.
On a more positive note. Ukraine is able to resume its grain export from Odessa (a Ukraine port city west of Kherson) under a deal brokered by the UN and Turkey. This will ease the food insecurity around the world.
Who do you think will win the Battle of Kherson if and when it happens?
Update 3, here.